KALMAN scans 500+ S&P 500 stocks every morning before the open, ranks the strongest setups, reads the market's risk conditions, and turns both into one clear verdict — act, watch, or stand down — with every factor explained, before the bell rings. The strongest setups, honestly rated — with a risk plan to survive the ones that don't pan out.
KALMAN reads 16 market inputs across three jobs — Scoring which setups are strongest, gauging market Conditions (a risk gate built from credit spreads, VIX term structure, and breadth), and Timing the entry — then combines them into one gate-conditioned verdict: act, watch, or stand down. Weighting is tuned on ~9 years of point-in-time S&P 500 data and adapts to the VIX regime automatically.
Crucially, a strong setup in a hostile market is not a green light — when conditions turn risk-off, KALMAN says stand down rather than feed you false hope. The goal isn't to beat buy-and-hold in a bull market. It's to know when the setup is strong, protect your capital when it isn't, and never be surprised by a position. Even the strongest setups only work about half the time — the edge is in sizing, the stop, and standing down when conditions turn.
KALMAN doesn't replace your analysis — it systematizes it, and it's as honest about when to wait as when to act. Here's who gets the most out of it.
Built for self-directed investors who want systematic clarity — not more opinions.
Every input below does a specific job — Scoring the setup, gauging market Conditions, or Timing the entry. The weighting is tuned on ~9 years of point-in-time S&P 500 data and adapts to the VIX regime automatically, so the same setup means the same thing whether the market is calm or in stress. One validated configuration — no dials to guess at.
| Input | Role | What it measures |
|---|---|---|
| QQQ Alignment | Scoring | Tech sector confirmation — Nasdaq in sync with the setup direction. One of the strongest cross-sectional inputs in backtesting |
| Stochastic RSI | Scoring | StochRSI %K/%D crossover — momentum direction and entry zone (overbought / oversold penalty) |
| VIX Regime | Scoring | Fear gauge — low VIX favors longs; elevated VIX signals caution |
| 200-Day SMA | Scoring | Long-term trend regime — price above or below the 200-day mean |
| ^DJT Dow Theory | Scoring | Transports confirmation — Dow Jones Transportation Average agrees with the trend direction (Charles Dow's century-old confirmation principle) |
| Sector Relative | Scoring | Peer outperformance — 20-day return vs the symbol's SPDR sector ETF; rewards genuine leadership, penalizes laggards |
| RSI (14) | Scoring | Relative strength index — ideal zone / near-extreme / overbought / oversold; avoids late entries |
| GLD Risk-Off | Scoring | Gold as a risk-appetite proxy — rising GLD signals capital fleeing equities; falling GLD confirms risk-on |
| TLT Flow | Scoring | Bond market signal — TLT above its 20-day SMA indicates flight-to-safety / risk-off rotation |
| Credit Spread (HY OAS) | Conditions | ICE BofA US high-yield option-adjusted spread (FRED) — widening spreads are a leading risk-off indicator, typically before VIX moves. Drives the risk gate |
| VIX Term Structure | Conditions | VIX / VIX3M — backwardation (ratio ≥ 1) means traders are paying up for near-term protection, a classic stress signature. Drives the risk gate |
| Market Breadth | Conditions | % of S&P 500 members above their own 200-DMA — narrowing participation is a late-cycle warning. Drives the risk gate |
| Adaptive Trend | Timing | The signal trigger — adaptive trend-tracking that tightens in chop and accelerates in trends; its crossover fires a new signal and sets its freshness |
| Signal Freshness | Timing | Recency of the trend crossover — best risk/reward is near the trigger; late entries are down-weighted |
| Weekly Trend | Timing | Timeframe alignment — weekly adaptive trend direction confirms (or flags) the daily signal |
| Volume | Timing | Volume confirmation — above-average volume in the signal direction signals institutional participation |
KALMAN scores each symbol in both directions (bull minus bear) to rank the setup, then crosses that lean with the market's risk Conditions — because the same setup is a very different trade in a calm market than in a falling one.
Conditions come from a market-wide risk gate (credit spreads, VIX term structure, breadth) that also throttles suggested exposure — full size when calm, scaled back as conditions deteriorate.
Stop losses are set at 2× ATR(14) from entry — sized to the symbol's actual volatility, not a one-size-fits-all percentage.
The scoring is validated with walk-forward cross-validation across per-sector out-of-sample periods — genuine predictive signal, not in-sample fitting. There's one tuned, regime-adaptive configuration; no knobs to guess at.
KALMAN is designed to fit into your morning routine — not replace your judgment, but sharpen it.
KALMAN is currently in private beta with an invited group of self-directed investors. Sign in below if you've received access, or request access to join the waitlist.